Having paid out on a Clinton victory a late surge from The Donald will have us sweating like a bad hombre but we remain confident in our decision following the final debate.”
While there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of political betting markets, they nonetheless have a “respectable track record” of predicting election outcomes — and generally are more accurate than opinion polls, according to a note this month from Capital Economics.
The most unlikely utterances? From Clinton, a reference to Trump’s “wig/hairline” — William Hill’s words, mind you — paying out $330 on a $10 bet. and abroad suggest Hillary Clinton fortified and m88 expanded her lead over Donald Trump after the third and final presidential debate Wednesday night.
The markets enable participants to bet on a range of questions, and often they perform better than opinion polls at predicting political outcomes.
The final presidential debate was in Las Vegas, so it should come as no surprise the event had British betting powerhouse William Hill as a co-sponsor.
In the U.S., non-profit outfits such as PredictIt and PredictWise offer small-dollar, limited betting markets for the purposes of research and teaching. All Rights Reserved. For Trump, the long shot was rally favorite “Get ‘em out” — with a payout of $200 on a $10 bet.
That’s despite the high-profile black mark known as Brexit: The betting markets predicted — up to the day Britain voted — an 80 percent likelihood U.K. voters would opt to “remain” in the European Union. The next most likely utterances were “Make America Great Again” from you-know-who and “Stronger together” from Clinton.
Online betting and prediction markets in the U.S. They did not.
The overseas odds often mirror those of U.S.
Added the spokesman, in an email: “This was Trump’s best performance but he failed to land the knockout blow that he needed to influence the odds. markets, sometimes with a lag of a few days since they don’t directly reflect the sentiment of the U.S. prediction market PredictIt, Clinton was trading at 81 cents before the debate, jumped as high as 87 cents during the sparring match, and settled at 83 cents after, said PredictIt spokeswoman Brandi Travis in an interview. That suggests an 83 percent likelihood she’ll win on Election Day.
The market paid out on bets the phrases “open borders” and “rigged election” would make appearances, but “Crooked Hillary” did not get air time.
The odds on PredictIt suggested TV viewership would be down (yet to be seen) from the first two debates and Trump would talk more than Clinton (she wound up talking for 5 minutes more than him).
Based on odds offered by William Hill, pretty much the only sure thing about the debate was that Donald Trump would say “tremendous” — requiring a massive $1,000 bet to win a paltry $1. Rules on political wagering are more permissive overseas, with major players like Paddy Power and U.K.-based Betfair raking in big dollars from bettors.
Another U.S. voter, Travis noted. The markets also tend to closely follow polling averages including the one maintained by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website.
On U.S. market, PredictWise, on Thursday morning put the odds of a Clinton victory at 91 percent.
Irish bookmaker Paddy Power is so confident in a Hillary Clinton victory, its spokesman (official title: PR & Mischief Champion) noted a come-from-behind Trump victory would “trigger the biggest political payout in bookmaking history and leave Paddy Power with some very expensive pie on its face.”
The market — which traded 4.8 million shares Wednesday, its highest total this year — predicts Clinton will trounce Trump by 8 percentage points, which would be the largest presidential margin of victory since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide.
Sure, using this approach leaves open the possibility of the line turning around and moving back against you, but as you will see in bit, betting as soon as an RLM qualifies has been profitable in every major North American sport such as the last two seasons, so if one line turns around, so be it. We tracked the top five books for each of the pointspread sports for the last two years, as as you can see, this strategy has been profitable in every sport. Another important recommendation is to use a slow moving (but reliable) sportsbook. Furthermore, they list the RLM records for many individual sportsbook, making it easy to spot which books this system is working at and which books it may be best to ignore.
College Basketball sports betting was not too shabby either, with a two-year mark of 492-356-22, 58.0 percent, +91.96 units. Keep a close eye on Canbet here, as that Australian sportsbook cracked the top five both years.
By: Manny G
Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money. This may enable you to get the stale more favorable sports betting line at the time the reverse line movement hits at the triggering Sportsbook. The records quoted below are based on the bets being made at the triggering books, so beating the move by a half-point or a few cents now and then would actually make your record even better.
So what we recommend is to only use the top five each season for each individual sport (in terms of m88 mobile units won). Last year was a good RLM season for NFL sports betting (45-29, 60.8 percent, +11.91), but two sportsbooks that were in the top five in NFL RLM in both seasons.
Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run, and again, the best thing is that there in absolutely no conventional sports handicapping necessary..
The highest two-year winning percentage using RLM from the top five books belongs to College Football, which went 480-341-10, 58.5 percent, +95.10 units. Carib ruled the roost season at 93-66-9, 58.5 percent, +18.55 units after ABC held the penthouse spot in the 2007-08 season.
NBA sports betting has the lowest two-year five-book RLM winning percentage among the 11/10 sports, but then again, every gambler in the world would kill to go 382-301-9, 55.9 percent, +48.90 units, and the 57.5 percent win rate this past season is nothing to sneeze at.
Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side, yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number at the top five sportsbooks in MLB and NHL sports betting has also been profitable. Keep in mind that NCAAB was the most liquid sport in terms of top-five sportbooks however, with not a single sportsbook making the top five both years. The huge problem with this is that the nfl line, ncaaf line or nhl line may have moved too much by that time, and all of the value has been sucked out of the unpopular side.. RLM takes place when more money/ sportsbook picks are bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). However, instead of the line rising as you might expect, it instead drops to Chargers -6. All of this will be fun to follow (not to mention profitable) when every sport except baseball are going on simultaneously during the winter months.
The proper way to make a sports bet using reverse line movement is to place your bet as soon as there is an RLM of one full point (or 10 cents in MLB and NHL) off of the opening line. Quite a few RLM followers watch the moves until almost game time, and then bet accordingly. So what exactly is reverse line movement? RLM takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. This is where an important word of caution is in order though. To illustrate, let us say that San Diego Chargers open at -7 over the Miami Dolohins, and over 70 percent of the sports bets placed on the game are on San Diego. It should be noted that many fewer MLB games have qualified so far this season (is the whole world using RLM now?), but smaller profits is still profit.Again, these records are for Money Lines only and do not include totals.Finally, NHL sports betting has picked up 148.49 units in two years, and unlike MLB, NHL had four sportsbooks out of the top five gain double-digit units this past season. Keep an eyes on the top five sportsbooks at Sports Insights though, as NCAAF sports betting has been very liquid in that regard, with only one sportsbook (believe it or not, Bodog) finishing in the top five both years.
To back this up, our friends over at Prosportsonline.net have tracked the records for games where over 60 percent of the public has been on one side, yet there was reverse line movement of at least one full point from the opening number at the top sportsbooks in NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB. Note that these records are for sides only and do not include totals.
The NFL sports betting is generally considered the toughest sport to beat, yet blindly following this method produced an exceptional 59.2 percent win rate last season, improving the two year record to 328-249-12, 56.8 percent, +59.06 units. This would make Miami +6 the RLM play.
So what causes RLM when the aim of most sportsbooks is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors; the one’s who give sports betting advice
Place Bet – A bet that the horse you chose will come in second (a place bet is also a winning bet if the horse you chose comes in first).
Once you have taken the time to look over the racing program and the professionals’ advice, it is time to start figuring out which bets you would like to place for the upcoming race. To keep things fun and not risk too much money, most beginners make $2 bets. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Win, Place, and Show Bet (a.k.a. Across The Board Bet) – Bets on the first, second, and third place finishers; each act as a separate bet.
Win Bet – A bet that the horse you chose will win the race.
Show Bet – A bet that the horse you chose will come in third (a show bet is also a winning bet if the horse you chose comes in first or second).
The following is the correct way to place a bet with a betting clerk:
Box Bet – Any of the above bets can be boxed for an additional wager. The point is to have fun, not to go home without money you need to pay your bills. At this point, some people like to spend some time on the paddock to see the horses being walked from the stable to the track, as it adds to the horse racing experience and occasionally one might notice something about a horse that influences the way they bet, such as a horse that appears sluggish or one that seems like it is in exceptional shape.
Trifecta Bet – A bet on the exact first, second, and third place finishers in exact order.
To place a $2 Win bet on horse number 7, you would say, “<Track Name>, $2 to Win on Number 7″.
To place a $2 Exacta Box bet on horse 2 and 5, you would say, “<Track Name>, $2 Exacta Box on Numbers 2 and 5″ (keep in mind that this is actually a $4 bet since you are boxing the bet).
Exacta Bet – A bet on the exact first and second place finishers in exact order.
While there are a variety of bets, the following are the most common bets, and are more than enough for beginners. For example, instead of paying $2 for an Exacta bet that requires the horses to finish in an exact fun88 casino first and second place order, you can pay $4 for an Exacta Box bet, and you will win the Exacta bet regardless of which of the two horses comes in first.
Daily Double Bet – A bet on the first place finishers in two consecutive races.
The reason why you need to start out with the <Track Name> is because you can bet on horse races at many tracks from the horse track you are currently at, so you need to specify the track to the betting clerk.
All of us are aware that betting is a risky affair,this unpredicted event can take you to deep profits and at the same time you can lose also. Here you get trusted and reliable statistics, tables, betting tips and latest results that relates to football betting. Make sure you have maintained a betting limit , instead of wagering with hefty bucks, play with a small amount many times. Both of the teams have unbeatable good players,but then you should make bets after doing plenty of research work,don’t just stick to one,play smartly. Many times you might be very close to win,but end up losing. You can also take a look on online lives scores of the matches and take the reviews of expert’s punter
By: Pedro Walker
Managing your betting amount is a crucial part to consider while you are placing soccer bets. Losing with a small amount will not be a disaster,you can easily make other bets with more excitement and fun.
The money making strategy in soccer betting is all about taking advantage from the information available,the more you are acquainted with latest trends the more you have chances of making as much money as you can. Making money from soccer betting is all the matter of taking advantage from the information. Generally people get excited and make bets for larger amount all the time,this can lead them to debts because bankroll emptied quite early.
As the grand soccer world cup 200 is gearing near, players have great opportunity to try hand in making lucrative bets. Website offering betting tips have plethora of tips along with a statistical analysis that guides you and let you focus on the certainty of the bets at stake. However, despite of being an unpredictable affair betting lets you make huge money within a short span. Online betting websites are a great source which provide players with enriched betting odds, higher stakes and array of bets for novices as well experienced punters. It is essential to make a strong by soccer betting,you do not easily lose your calm and play with utmost patience.
Make your thoughts clear had have a strong base to make the most of this soccer betting season..
The real of of online soccer betting is not as simple as the flip of a coin which lets you decide outcome of the match. It’s quite visible that Spain and Brazil are hot favorites for this soccer season, with presence of other teams,you need to carefully analyze their individualized performance and then place bets.
Online-betting.me.uk provides all information that you require for placing winning soccer bets
1, Clemson Tigers. This is especially true after our hugely disappointing loss to the no-nonsense, mistake-free, steady-as-she goes Iowa Hawkeyes on Friday at 90,000-strong Memorial Stadium in Lincoln (Nebraska’s 347th consecutive sellout).
James Marshall Crotty
Everyone is talking about the College Football Playoff, but what about the games leading up to it? Make your predictions on Sage and tune in to see if you were right.
When I was at the point of giving up on my latest book, Brand New Man: My Weight Loss Journey, I called Nocera for advice. Without the athletes, there is no college sports. It’s imminent. Should they do so?
In this week’s Scheer Intelligence podcast on KCRW, Robert Scheer speaks with former USC football player Anthony Davis about living with the brain injuries Davis sustained during his celebrated career.
John A. Helping others find their WHY and their Way.
Will the Big 12 conference expand from 10 to 12 teams? There will be a meeting on this issue in a few weeks, with a possible decision later this summe…
Best selling lottery and structured settlement expert
Suffering from “Florida Envy,” Georgia schools and teams think they’re serving their fans with a “win a championship or bust approach,” desperate to keep pace with their Southern neighbors. Tures
Editor, Truthdig.com; Author, ‘They Know Everything About You’
WordPress Specialist, Author of “Spirit & Truth: 52 Encouraging Messages for America’s Law Enforcement”
Is it worth it for underclassmen, i.e. It’s not a matter of if, but when, does the bubble burst?
The final College Football Playoff Game is tonight, and the No. 2, Alabama Crimson Tide is taking on the No. Tures
Political science professor, LaGrange College in Georgia
Political science professor, LaGrange College in Georgia
Father, husband, blogger, author, Emmy Winner, Health Insurance Provider. Alabama is heavily favored in its fourth championship game since 2009 with Coach Nick Saban, despite having lost one game this season.
A number of schools are considering firing their longtime successful coaches, in the hopes of getting a more successful one. There is no revenue in ticket sales.
We are proud to create as many avenues as possible for our students to learn, grow and succeed. juniors and sophomores, to drop out of school early, with a potential reward of a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract, or do they do so at their own peril later on?
The most important play in Jimbo Fisher’s career wasn’t a Jameis Winston touchdown pass in the Rose Bowl, or a coast to coast Dalvin Cook run. It’s inside each and every one of us. Fifteen minutes of his insights got me on the right path and the book will be released next week.
Like the mortgage industry implosion of 2008, the college football business is an impending disaster. yet at the same time we are all amazing.
John A. There are no huge sponsorships from big companies like Nike. Unreasonable expectations, high turnovers, entitlement, participation trophies. Builder of products, solver of problems, lover of tech, travel, food and the Philadelphia Eagles
College is 4-ish years of living the dream and FlockU is along for the ride.
By Brandon Ferris, Rider University ’18
There are about 70 days and counting until college football starts again.
You might ask you…
Nothing I say here will assuage the pain of being a Nebraska Cornhusker football fan right now. But all the state is doing is making it less likely its teams will ever win a championship.
GM, AOL Alpha/Director of Product, AOL Mobile.
GM, AOL Alpha/Director of Product, AOL Mobile. Builder of products, solver of problems, lover of tech, travel, food and the Philadelphia Eagles
Author and expert in the field of critical thinking and mental toughness training
Remove the athletes and you remove the profit. We are all broken… As much as we are different, we have much in common. The play that changed everything for Fisher and his FSU program was made on a punt against an unranked team.
Writer and digital media professional living in Atlanta
At a time when lunch counter sit-ins were met with insults and abuse, peaceful protest marches provoked fire hoses and snarling police dogs, Eddie Robinson urged Grambling athletes and students to go to class, get an education, and be ready for change.
The ability to know you are more than who you are. Focus in this area demonstrates the strong commitment our Board of Education, administration, faculty, staff, and coaches have to our core belief in educating the whole child.
. The coaches with their million dollar contracts have no one to coach
Demichelis was not immediately available for comment.
. There is no suggestion that Demichelis was involved in match fixing nor that he bet on games in which he was involved.
Demichelis is not the first professional football player to have been charged by the FA over betting offenses.
Rule E8 states: “A Participant shall not bet, either directly or indirectly, or instruct, permit, cause or enable any person to bet on – (i) the result, progress, conduct or any other aspect of, or occurrence in, a football match or competition; or (ii) any other matter concerning or related to football anywhere in the world, including, for example and without limitation, the transfer of players, employment of managers, team selection or disciplinary matters.”
“It is alleged the player committed 12 breaches of FA Rule E8 concerning football matches between 22 January 2016 and 28 January 2016. He has until 5pm on 5 April 2016 to respond to the charge,” said an FA statement:
Story highlightsMartin Demichelis charged over alleged bettingDefender accused of committing 12 breaches relating to matches in JanuaryArgentine international could face a fine or suspension35-year-old has until April 5 to appeal
Demichelis, 35, is accused of having broken worldwide rules which came into existence on August 1 2014 to prevent players from betting on any football activity whether inside or outside of their domestic league.
Dan Gosling, the Bournemouth midfielder, was fined £30,000 ($43,000) after breaching the rules in March 2014 while at former club Newcastle.
The misconduct charge is the latest blow for Demichelis, whose performances and that of his fellow teammates have dipped in recent weeks, with City falling out of contention in the Premier League title race after losing a number of crucial fixtures over the past couple of months.
Newcastle and England winger Andros Townsend was fined £18,000 ($26,000) and banned for four months in 2013 — a punishment which prevented him from playing at the European Under-21 Championship.
City manager Manuel Pellegrini, who announced he will leave the club at the end of the season last month, has presided over defeats to rivals Tottenham, Leicester and Manchester United with his team 15 points off the pace and now fighting to qualify for next season’s Champions League.
City did beat Liverpool to win the League Cup final and face Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League quarterfinals next week.
Manchester City declined to comment when contacted by CNN
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker’s effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision.
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team’s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent.
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor).
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said. If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an “adjusted line.”
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a “preliminary” pointspread on an upcoming game.
Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather.
Why the Line Changes
How the Opening Line Is Made
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.
Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’). The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not.”
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line “feels right.” This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team’s power rating are key player injuries and player trades
When not busy with football practice at the filed, he would usually spend most of his time playing first person shooting videogames such as call of duty, halo or even battlefield.
The National Football League comprised of 32 teams is the highest major professional league in the United States. Steven Heyer started his professional football career in 2007 as part of Washington Redskins. Traditionally, football is an autumn sport which typically starts in mid-to-late August until January. He considers Steven Heyer of the Raiders as one of his football idols.
The major forms of football in the United States are high school football, college football and professional football. In 2011, he played for the Oakland Raiders and currently he is a part of the New York Jets team.
. However in the 1970′s NFL began to schedule one game every Monday and in 2006, games are scheduled on Thursdays and on Saturdays at the end of the season.
Eligible college football players are selected by NFL teams during the NFL Drafts usually held in April. This is also the reason why football teams very seldom play more than one game in a week. Compared to other popular sports in the United States, American football seasons are typically far shorter because of its toll on the human body. The said schools play at the NCAA’s divisional system with four divisions: Division I Bowl Subdivision, Division I Championship Subdivision, Division II and Division III. Majority of the colleges and universities in the United States have their own football teams and college football is administered by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA). He has been playing football since high school and college.
Allie Evans is a left tackle for his junior college team. The Division I Bowl Subdivision which is the largest among the aforementioned divisions does not have a structured tournament to be able to determine its national champion; hence the teams are requested to play in numerous post-season bowl games. It has been a tradition in the United States to play high school football games, college games and professional games on Friday, Saturday and Sunday respectively. In high school football, the teams generally play only with the other teams in the same state.
One of the players in the NFL is Steven Heyer. Playoffs for NFL is held until January while the Super Bowl is usually played in the first week of February, thus covering a wide range of weather conditions, from the heat and humidity of late summer, to the cold winds and snow in mid-winter. There is also the United Football League with only 5 teams and several other semi-professional football leagues like women’s semi-professional football, and indoor football leagues are also played all throughout the country. Early professional teams also shared the same field with baseball teams which is the reason why the end of the baseball season marks the start of the football season