Research and Markets: Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets: Adaptive Drift Modeling Identifies Periods of Inefficiency and Develops Profitable Forecasting Models

Market Perspectives: Through a Glass Darkly.

3. Also, anyone

with a general interest in learning about how to profit from the

financial and sports gambling markets will find this book to be a

valuable resource.

Addressing the highly competitive and risky environments of current-day

financial and sports gambling markets, Forecasting in Financial and

Sports Gambling Markets details the dynamic process of constructing

effective forecasting rules based on both graphical patterns and

adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time series. Simultaneous Financial Time Series.

10. Opacity and Present Day Variables.

4. Modeling Cointegrated Time Series Associated with NBA and NFL

Games.

11. Single Equation Adaptive Drift Modeling.

8. Pseudo Candlestick Graphics for Major League Baseball.

7. Financial/Mathematical Illiteracy and Adolescent Problem Gambling:

Epidemics More Damaging Than the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.

13. Mallios, PhD, is a consultant at Mallios and Associates,

where he provides professional advisement to various financial, medical,

and educational institutions. Introduction.

2. Mallios

served as professor of decision sciences at California State University,

Fresno, for more than twenty-five years and has provided consulting

services for government organizations, including the Food and Drug

Administration and Centers for Disease Control.

Providing valuable insights based on the author’s firsthand experience,

this book utilizes simple, yet unique, candlestick charts to identify

optimal time periods in financial markets and optimal games in sports

gambling markets for which forecasting models are likely to provide

profitable trading and wagering outcomes. Adaptive Modeling Concepts in Dynamic Markets.

5. A Fulbright Senior Specialist, Dr. The book

uniquely identifies periods of inefficiency that these markets oscillate

through and develops profitable forecasting models that capitalize on

irrational behavior exhibited during these periods.

Key Topics Covered:

Higher order ARMA processes in financial markets

The effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling markets

Cointegrated time series with model drift

Modeling volatility

Preface.

1. Studies in Japanese Candlestick Charts.

6.

DUBLIN–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/508458/forecasting_in_fin)

has announced the addition of John Wiley and Sons Ltd’s new book “Forecasting

in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets: Adaptive Drift Modeling”

to their offering.

Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets is an excellent

book for courses on financial economics and time series analysis at the

upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. Categorical Forecasting.

12. The Influenza Futures Markets.

Index.

List of Figures.

Throughout the book, interesting real-world applications are presented,

and numerous graphical procedures illustrate favorable trading and

betting opportunities, which are accompanied by mathematical

developments in adaptive model forecasting and risk assessment. Single Equation Modeling: Sports Gambling Markets.

9. A

related web site features updated reviews in sports and financial

forecasting and various links on the topic.

William S. Featuring detailed examples

that utilize actual data, the book addresses various topics that promote

financial and mathematical literacy, including:

A guide to modeling analyses for financial and sports gambling markets,

with a focus on major current events

Author:

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/508458/forecasting_in_fin

. The book is also a valuable

reference for researchers and practitioners working in the areas of

retail markets, quant funds, hedge funds, and time series

How the Sports Betting Line is Made by RJ Bell

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Contributed by:

Moving the line is the oddsmaker’s effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision.

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team’s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent.

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. Reasons for such adjustments include: .

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor).

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said. If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an “adjusted line.”

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a “preliminary” pointspread on an upcoming game.

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

RJ Bell

©Pregame.com 2006

Website: http://www.Pregame.com

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather.

Why the Line Changes

How the Opening Line Is Made

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’). The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not.”

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line “feels right.” This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team’s power rating are key player injuries and player trades

NFL Teams in Alphabetical Order

Every year, the Super Bowl (the NFL championship game) is what excites football fans the most, with everyone looking forward to spending time together and watching the big game over some delicious food. Each zone has four teams, resulting in 16 teams under the AFC, and 16 under the NFC. The AFC and NFC have four zones each-North, South, East, and West. Here however, is something for those of you looking for such a list in alphabetical order.

NFL Team

Division

Arizona Cardinals

NFC West

Atlanta Falcons

NFC South

Baltimore Ravens

AFC North

Buffalo Bills

AFC East

Carolina Panthers

NFC South

Chicago Bears

NFC North

Cincinnati Bengals

AFC North

Cleveland Browns

AFC North

Dallas Cowboys

NFC East

Denver Broncos

AFC West

Detroit Lions

NFC East

Green Bay Packers

NFC North

Houston Texans

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC South

Kansas City Chiefs

AFC West

Miami Dolphins

AFC East

Minnesota Vikings

NFC North

New England Patriots

AFC East

New Orleans Saints

NFC South

New York Giants

NFC East

New York Jets

AFC East

Oakland Raiders

AFC West

Philadelphia Eagles

NFC East

Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC North

San Diego Chargers

AFC West

San Francisco 49ers

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks

NFC West

St. Also known as Super Bowl Sunday, it is a day on which maximum food is consumed, after Thanksgiving!

There are a total of 32 NFL teams, which have been divided into various zones of the American Football Conference (AFC) and the National Football Conference (NFC). It is now one of the richest sporting leagues in the world. A lot of people plan Super Bowl Sunday way in advance, and ensure that they have no engagements or commitments that day. Louis Rams

NFC West

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC South

Tennessee Titans

AFC South

Washington Redskins

NFC East . Usually, you will always find a zone-wise distribution of these teams. A very interesting fact is that, over 8 million pounds of guacamole is consumed on Super Bowl Sunday, and the sales of antacids increase drastically the next day! Such is the impact of the NFL, which seems to be only getting bigger with every passing year.

Formerly known as the American Professional Football Association, and started in the year 1920, the group soon adapted itself to the National Football League in the year 1922. As the biggest sports league that American football has ever seen, the craze about the NFL, its players, and the yearly Super Bowl only gets greater and wider. As such, the total number of NFL teams is 32