Ultimate CFB bowl betting guide

Boston College

4. Just like the College Football Playoff committee, there was a simple difference of opinion when it came to team value.

VR line: Northern Illinois (+5.5)

We preach the importance of betting against the public and taking underdogs in games with low totals. 3 and 4 spots; some liked Ohio State then TCU, while others liked TCU then Baylor. Thirty days of practice in warm weather before a bowl game helps you get a lot more done than practicing in a bubble or outside in a cold climate.”

2. LSU

6. San Diego State

3. Throw away any games against non-bowl competition. New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State (+2.5) vs. 1 Allstate Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, and Oregon 4.5 points better than Florida State in the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual in Pasadena, California.

Value plays

It’s easy to get overwhelmed amid the myriad college football bowl games that will be played between Dec. Using that baseline, we define a low total as any game with an over/under of 54 or less. This criterion produced a system with a 48-28 ATS record (63.2 percent) with plus-17.18 units won and a 22.6 percent return on investment (ROI).

VR line: Wisconsin (+1)

Bowl season is the holy grail of the sports calendar. Meyer is 4-0 as an underdog at Ohio State, which makes this an interesting angle.

6. Utah State

2. It’s like driving on the highway at 30 mph,” White says.

VR line: Kansas State -4

ESPN’s CFB Bowl Mania »

To both the pro-Vegas bettor and the casual gambler, Florida State, a team that has won 29 straight games, getting nine points is pretty crazy. Sharp bettors are able to then capitalize on these artificially inflated lines by focusing on teams that are being ignored across the marketplace.

After winning four straight to start the season, UCLA lost two in a row, then won five straight before an awful performance against Stanford. UCLA (Jan.

CFB Vegas Rankings

For our value plays, we had six bowl games that had a difference of four points or more between the Las Vegas point spread and the difference in the two teams’ CFB Vegas Rankings. 

Key links:

Vegas Ranks line: Georgia Tech +3

Our historical database shows that since 2005, the average college football total is 53.66 points. Marshall (Dec. Mississippi State

The Buckeyes haven’t been this big of an underdog since Week 4 of 2011 at Nebraska (plus-10). Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Houston (+3) vs. How much excitement a team will have headed into the bowl: “You’re looking for a team that is thrilled to be there and looking forward to the game,” White says.

With an abundance of bowl games, many bettors feel obligated to lay down a wager on every game. Tennessee

– David Solar

Jay Kornegay’s Top Public Teams

4. Quotes are courtesy of Kenny White, the current COO of Don Best Sports, and Vegas vet Bryan Leonard.

The five teams that have taken the most bets over the course of the season, according to Kornegay, lead bookmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas, and his staff:

All odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Westgate sportsbook as of Tuesday, Dec. The ratings are meant to compare the relative strength of the teams if they were to meet on a neutral field, which is what we get in bowl games (except for rare cases). Taxslayer Bowl: Iowa (+3.5) vs.

Kansas State (PK) vs. How can you trust UCLA?

7. Foster Farms Bowl: Maryland (+13.5) vs. Oregon (Jan. 1 Outback Bowl)

Below we provide:

The handicappers believe this is a simple overreaction to the last time the nation saw Wisconsin play. 1 and No. Stanford

7. Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Notre Dame (+7.5) vs. 1 Sugar Bowl)

Here are all of the teams participating in bowl season, and how Las Vegas sees them:. TCU

2. 2 teams are Alabama and Oregon, and all three handicappers gave the Crimson Tide and Ducks those ratings. 20 and Jan. 4. This is a time for celebrating the holidays with family and friends, knocking back a glass of eggnog (which, let’s stop kidding ourselves, is really just a socially acceptable way to drink pancake batter one month every year) and engaging in binge football viewing.

Here’s a primer that outlines the factors professional bettors consider when wagering on bowl games. Ohio State

4. How a team ended the regular season: “Were they on a run to make the bowl, or did they lose a lot?” White asks.

Here are eight plays that match this system:

A subset of No. Alabama

3. Where we saw a difference was in the No. Arkansas

5. How motivated will the Bulldogs be?

3. Pittsburgh

8. The last time Florida State was this large of an underdog was in Week 14 of 2009 against Florida (plus-26).

Enjoy and good luck this bowl season.

1. Consider how the conference is doing in bowls. We’ve asked our experienced group of gambling experts, including Chad Millman, Dave Tuley, Phil Steele, Evan Abrams, Brian Edwards, David Solar, Wunderdog and Sal Selvaggio, what they’re focused on during bowl season.

CFB PickCenter »

Handicappers’ five best ATS bets, SU bets, O/U bets and potential upsets.

Florida State (+9) vs. Our stance is rooted in experience: One reason underdogs fare particularly well in low-scoring games is that less scoring naturally leads to closer games, which disproportionately benefits the team getting points.

1. Michigan State

5. 31 Orange Bowl)

VR line: Florida State (+4.5)

Typically we prefer a larger sample size when creating a new betting system; however, with a limited number of bowl games in our database, this system has proved to be profitable during the regular season as well.

The CFB Vegas Rankings are the composite power ratings of a panel of professional handicappers and college football statisticians, including fellow Insider Phil Steele, Vegas handicapper Brian Edwards and Bruce Marshall of The Gold Sheet. Auburn (Jan. Northern Illinois has been in this position before, and Marshall has failed to cover its last three games entering bowl season.

Betting against the public is a subject we’ve discussed ad nauseam, but it certainly bears repeating: The public loves to bet on favorites and overs, which makes sense since it is human nature to root for winners and scoring. Advocare V100 Texas Bowl: Texas (+5.5) vs. But fear not, Insider is here to help. With this in mind, we created a new betting system using our Bet Labs software, which focused on all underdogs with low totals receiving less than 40 percent of spread bets during bowl season. Getting blown out by Ohio State 59-0 in the Big Ten championship game has inflated this spread; according to the handicappers, this should be around Auburn minus-1.

– Evan Abrams

Picks, Picks, Picks

Best Bowl-Season System Plays from Sports Insights

VR line: Ohio State (+5)

Georgia Tech (+7) vs. Gildan New Mexico Bowl: UTEP (+10) vs. “What you want to do is see how a team stepped up in class,” Leonard says.

To show how close these rankings are, Alabama is ranked a perfect 50, but there are 11 different teams within 10 points of Alabama and 19 different teams within just 12 points of the Crimson Tide. Urban Meyer has not been this big of an underdog since he was the head coach at Utah against Texas A&M in 2003.

5. The weather on schools’ respective campuses: “The SEC, Pac-12, even the ACC tend to do better in the bowls than the Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East,” White says. San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: Navy (+3) vs. “I think the warm weather has a lot to do with that.

Georgia Tech ended the season on a six-game ATS winning streak and faces a Mississippi State team that just came off a loss against its rival, Ole Miss, in the Egg Bowl after a tremendous start to the season. 2 Alamo Bowl)

Ohio State (+9.5) vs. 16.

Chad Millman’s Seven Bowl-Bonanza Rules

The  best system bets for this bowl season from David Solar of Sports Insights.

Our combined power ratings have Alabama as five points better than Ohio State (the Tide’s 50 rating, minus the Buckeyes’ 45) in the Jan. Concepts of money management and selectivity are often disregarded during bowl season, although many trends fall in line with those we’ve observed during the regular season.

Top five  public teams according to Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas.

Wisconsin (+6.5) vs. 1 Rose Bowl)

Vegas Rankings of every bowl team.

CFB bowl schedule »

Northern Illinois (+10) vs. Sportsbooks understand this and shade their lines accordingly. 23 Boca Raton Bowl)

It’s not surprising that our No. How much time off a team has had before the bowl: “When you are not playing, it’s hard to simulate game speed. Alabama (Jan. 2 is bowl experience, but not for the reason you think: “I’m more likely to give a team a higher ranking if it hasn’t been to a bowl for a while because that will generate excitement among the program and fans,” White says.

Chad Millman’s seven rules for betting bowl games.

1. Emphasize a team’s road performance over its home performance.

NIU won its last seven games of the regular season, including a game against Western Michigan, where it was an 8-point underdog. Mississippi State (Dec

Predict Football Score Predictions – How to Correctly Predict Outcome of Football Matches and Win Your Football Bet

These experts realize something that most people do not, and that is, prediction football do not need to be accurate to the extremes with match results, but all they need is a prediction football system to tell them whether their bets have a good enough opportunity to beat the sports books’ handicap.

Predict Football Score Predictions

Sports books determine football handicaps and odds based on a number of data which they have collected over the years, therefore, while most people think that they can perfectly master the skill of prediction football just by understanding the sport itself, only a very small number of people who bet on football manage to win money consistently. If you are serious about making money from football betting, then I say you join them and get yourself a profitable system right away. While a lot of people out there argue that football betting is won on factors like “gut feel”, “luck” and “experience”, the biggest winners that consistently make tons of money betting on football are still the ones who go about their “investments” in a scientific and systematic manner.

So, how does the small percentage of big winners manage to win their football bets over and over?

The secret lies in their systematic approach to betting on football. Predict Football Score Predictions

Prediction football is more of a science than an art. Some of these football betting systems deliver strike rates up to 80% over an entire season, and is still being refined.

The key to their success, is in the systems which they use to know which bets are worth placing. As the saying goes, the ball is round, and there are factors in every game that can tilt the balance and the score line in an instant, so to regularly hit results perfectly in prediction football is certainly not possible. Predict Football Score Predictions

10 Tips for Betting on Football

To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind.”

Betting on football games; whether it’s through a local bookie, an offshore Internet site or a Nevada casino (still the only legal place in America to make football bets), most of us have done it or know of someone who has. Consider Underdogs – “In the long-run, it’s easier to win betting on the underdog,” Konik says.

“A square or recreational player might have a vague plan, but after two Corona’s he will definitely run to the window and make a hasty decision on the USC-Notre Dame game because he wants to be involved in the party atmosphere,” Vaccaro says. In fact, sports bettors must pick 52.4 percent winners just to break even.”

“There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” Moseman says. If North Texas is his best bet on a Saturday then that is his bet. So underdogs tend to be slightly undervalued – except by the sharps.”

So, is it possible for the average square to become a little sharper in making football bets this season? According to professionals like Vacarro, Konik and Gordon, amateur bettors have the best chance to win if they demonstrate a little patience and follow the 10 basic tips below. Locks Don’t Exist – “Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing, especially against the spread, can be infinitesimally small,” Gordon says.

“Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” Vaccaro says. “Thus, the bookies love and cherish the squares.”

Certainly not back into the pockets of the average bettor.

Newspapers and popular sports sites routinely publish the lines or point spreads for games, and football insiders offer their picks to viewers each week on ESPN and other cable networks. They use powerful computers that can process millions of bits of data and produce a more accurate point-spread line than the bookmakers.”

5. “Most people prefer to bet on the ‘better’ team, the one that will probably win the game. Thanks to the juice, the only one who profits in this scenario is the bookmaker. If you want advice about sports betting, find someone who has a successful track record. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the sharps are laying heavy money on the points. “Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn’t otherwise make. “He is not jaded by teams and does not bet with his heart. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites. “For example, if you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”

So, how much should you bet a game?

4. The only locks that exist are those that need keys to open them.”

Ted Sevransky, a well-known Las Vegas gambler and sports consultant with Sportsmemo.com, agrees.

1. Oakland comes to mind) seem like the Super Bowl.

Another difference between squares and sharps is how they approach betting on game day.

Even Hollywood is not immune – think Two for the Money with Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey.

So, how much are we gambling each football season?

“The biggest mistake that amateur bettors make is they increase their bets when they are losing,” Sevransky says.

8. The payout is just the same as far as he is concerned. “In trying to bamboozle potential customers, many services make claims about having scouts all over the country that give them inside information and promise 70 or even 80 percent winners, as if the bookmakers were the biggest suckers in the world. Giving 11 to 10 odds is almost always the cheapest price you can give.”

2.

“A sharp or smart has a plan of what he wants to do,” says Vaccaro, the director of sports operations and public relations at Lucky’s Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas. The only touts bettors should consider are the ones who talk about the long haul and realistic winning percentages, which are in the upper 50 percent to lower 60 percent range.”

Moseman agrees and especially likes home underdogs. Money Management – “This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting on sports and possibly the most neglected,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. “The sharps are usually members of a betting syndicate privy to the most up-to-date information on injuries, weather, game plans, and, most important, the real power of the teams involved. Also, being “in action” can make a dull late-afternoon game (Buffalo vs. But, when you’re struggling, that’s when you want to reduce your bet size until you get out of your slump. “As for me, the best bet in football is betting the point spread or over/under totals on individual games.

3. He loses year after year, according to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of How to Beat the Sports Books (Cardoza Publishing 2005). “The key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose.”

However, Konik adds that there are some bettors who actually know how to beat the bookies. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.”

“A square is the average, unsophisticated gambler whose decision making is based on hunches, media manipulation, or spurious systems that cannot overcome the bookmaker’s inherent mathematical advantage,” Konik explains. “Common wisdom says that over the course of a long football season the average man or woman will pick approximately 50 percent winners. “If you listen to their advice, you are sure to lose.

Also, it’s probably a good idea to disregard advice from the myriad of ex-players and football experts you see on television each week. Drinking and Gambling Don’t Mix – “There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling,” Moseman says. Avoid Exotic Bets – “For very skilled handicappers, with a proven track record, there can, at least in theory, be value in betting parlays,” says Gordon on the type of bet that combines two or more individual wagers.

“The standard bet requires gamblers to lay $11 for every $10 they want to win with the extra $1 or 10 percent known as the juice,” Konik says. On college you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. “In the NFL, a game will often be totally turned around by one or two plays, or even a single penalty. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. Slim underdogs regularly win outright. Research Football Services – “Most sports services realize that most people who sign up with them are insecure,” Gordon warns.

And remember, in the immortal words of “Fast” Eddie Felson, “Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.”

“In an average season, fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit,” Gordon says. “There will be more discrepancy in the numbers at different sports books. Chasing losses is the fastest way to the poor house.”

And where does all that money go?

.

While these tips don’t guarantee you’re going to win, hopefully they can make you a little less square and a little more sharp in your picks this season. Shop For Numbers – “Another important aspect of betting on football is shopping for the best number,” Moseman explains. “When you’re in a good rhythm and winning, you want to increase your bets. “If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can.

But even though the math says it’s virtually impossible to win on a consistent basis, Americans continue to bet on football. “Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”

6.

“The bookies fear and despise a tiny coterie of professional bettors known as ‘the sharps,’” Konik says. “Squares usually bet later in the week and they tend to pick the favorites. And why not? We have unconditional love for the sport and betting $50 or $100 on a game adds an extra rush of adrenaline. Focus on Conferences – “The best way to win money betting football is to develop a niche and follow it closely,” Moseman advises.

“The talking heads on TV know nothing about sports betting,” says Sevransky. He is not taken in by being involved in USC-Notre Dame just because it is the biggest watched game of the day.

Michael Konik, a sports writer and best-selling author of The Smart Money (Simon & Schuster 2006), explains why it is so hard for the recreational gambler to win at betting on football. Otherwise, you’re better off doing your own research.”

7. There are almost an infinite number of scenarios that can happen in a single football game. “Teams play inspired ball at home. Bet at the Right Time – “The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early,” Moseman says. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.”

Although exact figures are impossible to calculate, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, widely considered to be Las Vegas’ most influential bookmaker, Americans probably wager more than $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined. Avoid Chasing Bets – “Don’t do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day,” cautions Moseman on the dangerous practice of trying to immediately win back your losses. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines.”

10. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”

But that doesn’t mean you have to bet like a “square” and throw away your hard-earned money.

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