Trump’s chances of winning have climbed dramatically since early July, but they’re only slightly better than Bush’s 17%. That suggests people are putting their money on the line to bet on someone they believe will win the nomination.
Jeb Bush is actually the odds-on favorite to win the GOP nomination, according to Irish gambling website Paddy Power.
Bush is viewed as a favorite at Betfair, a British site, followed by Marco Rubio and Trump.
Still, Trump could prove the gamblers wrong — just as he defied the Washington establishment that thought he’d implode by now.
“Donald Trump is new and he’s volatile. That means a $100 bet would pay $163 if Bush wins, and $350 if Trump does. You have to price that in,” said McNamara. The latest CNN poll released on Thursday shows Trump at 32% support for the Republican nomination, ahead of Ben Carson, his nearest rival, by 13 percentage points.
Trump is beating his rivals by double-digits in national polls, but bettors remain skeptical the billionaire’s lead will last until the Republican convention in Cleveland.
“I’ve been wrong like most of the other ‘inside the Beltway’ alleged experts,” Valliere said.
Related: How many jobs has Donald Trump actually created?
Pollsters, bookers differ
It’s a striking contrast with the polls, which show the real estate mogul with a big lead. Jeb Bush is next with 4-to-1 odds, followed by Trump’s 13-to-2 odds. “I thought Trump would fade by August — and here we are in September.”
CNNMoney (New York) First published September 11, 2015: 6:10 AM ET
That’s the message from the gamblers placing bets on the 2016 race for the White House.
“That would kill most candidates,” McNamara said. (Vegas casinos are prohibited from offering bets on U.S. He shoots from the hip.
Greg Valliere, chief political strategist at Potomac Research Group, believes the gambling odds reflect a sense that Trump’s harsh personality will eventually turn voters off.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the favorite to win the White House, with 11-to-10 odds on Paddy Power.
“At some point you’ll have huge chunks of the Republican establishment concluding he’ll be a disaster in a general election,” Valliere said.
You may be wondering: What do a bunch of bookies know about the Iowa caucuses? Maybe not much.
John McNamara, Pivit’s director of liquidity, said Trump’s odds of victory are far smaller than he’d expect given his lead in the polls. political elections.)
The former governor of Florida has 13-to-8 odds to be the Republican standard bearer. That is significantly better than Trump, who has 7-to-2 odds.
But just like in sports gambling, the odds reflect wagers being made by real gamblers.
He pointed to Trump’s recent negative comments to Rolling Stone about the physical appearance of Republican candidate Carly Fiorina.
Related: Trump has less respect for Wall Street than Obama
Gamblers pricing in Trump’s volatility
Interactive marketplace Pivit gives Trump a 20% chance to win the GOP race.
Other gambling sites also reflect Trump skepticism. No other candidate — not even Bush — registers double-digit support. Pivit, which powers the CNNPolitics prediction market, combines public opinion, news and data to produce live odds of event outcomes